How did the photovoltaic industry break the “strongest internal volume in history”? 1 article amazing makes it clear!

How did the photovoltaic industry break the strongest internal volume in history

On June 15, the five-day SNEC PV+ 17th (2024) International Solar Photovoltaic and Smart Energy (Shanghai) Conference and Exhibition (hereinafter referred to as SNEC 2024) came to an end.

“Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” reporter learned from the official SNEC Organizing Committee that this SNEC 2024 has more than 3,600 domestic and foreign exhibitors and more than 5,000 delegates. People from 95 countries and regions around the world came to participate in the exhibition, which is the largest scale in its history.

As the “Spring Festival Gala” in the photovoltaic industry, the SNEC exhibition plays the role of an industry “weather vane”. So, what signals did this year’s exhibition release? How should the entire photovoltaic industry chain break the “volume”?

Photovoltaic industry expands “new”: new products, new scenarios, new combinations

The 24% component conversion efficiency has become a “level” that many photovoltaic companies have struggled to overcome. At SNEC 2024, the mass production efficiency of the components has been “rolled” to 25%.

Aixu Co., Ltd. released the “full screen” ABC component and announced that its maximum power reached 700W and the conversion efficiency exceeded 25%.

“I was quite shocked when I knew it.” A person working in the photovoltaic industry told the reporter of “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily”, “When the industry develops to a certain stage, people no longer focus on competing (component) size and power, but now focus more on competing (component) efficiency. However, it should be noted that the improvement in component efficiency comes from the improvement in battery efficiency. Whether the product can be mass-produced and whether it has been shipped is equally important.”

At present, photovoltaic companies continue to expand the application scenarios of components. At SNEC 2024, LONGi Green Energy released Hi-MO X6, a photovoltaic component based on BC technology and dedicated to villa scenarios.

Niu Yanyan, president of LONGi Green Energy’s distributed business in China, said that the traditional mains power standard is challenging to the power supply power, power supply quality, and green environmental protection of high-end villa owners.

“Villa homes have large spaces and can accommodate more home appliances and electrical equipment. Compared with ordinary families, they have higher requirements for power consumption. Many villa homes even have constant-temperature swimming pools, private wine cellars, car charging piles, security monitoring equipment, etc. In the face of these high-power electrical equipment and facilities, villa homes can use photovoltaic power generation to ensure power safety and peak power consumption, guarantee power consumption experience, and reduce electricity bills.”

It is worth noting that according to Longi Green Energy, the company’s Hi-MO X6 villa modules will be priced per square meter and include the installation of photovoltaic power generation. It believes that “this new pricing method allows owners to better match module capacity and roof area.”

This SNEC 2024 also reflects the accelerated combination of artificial intelligence technology and the photovoltaic industry.

Aiswei’s new “artificial intelligence +” product “Ai Guanjia” for the photovoltaic industry is an AI energy management platform developed based on the Alibaba Cloud Tongyi model. It is reported that compared with traditional energy management systems, “Ai Guanjia” can more intelligently predict the best charging and discharging time of energy storage batteries and other equipment through energy management algorithms, further reducing electricity costs, etc.

According to Dai Wei, senior director of digital and information technology at AISWEI, the above products were developed by the company in cooperation with Alibaba Cloud based on the Tongyi model.

“This is the first time that the Tongyi model has been applied to the photovoltaic industry. We look forward to further promoting the application of artificial intelligence technology in the photovoltaic industry through more in-depth cooperation.” Hou Jianjun, the senior solution architect of Alibaba Cloud Tongyi Laboratory, said.

Governments are implementing policies to support the growth of the photovoltaic industry and reduce carbon emissions
Governments are implementing policies to support the growth of the photovoltaic industry and reduce carbon emissions

How can the industry break the “roll” under the pressure of industry chain prices

At present, the price and profit of the photovoltaic industry chain are under pressure, which has also become a topic that people cannot avoid during SNEC 2024.

“The silicon wafer and battery links are facing serious losses, and the profit level of the entire industry is at a low level. The industry’s capacity expansion is irrational, and the prices of the four links are at the bottom segment.” Du Jianen, a photovoltaic industry analyst at InfoLink, a new energy research institution, said.

Zhu Gongshan, chairman of GCL Group, said frankly: “At present, the photovoltaic industry is experiencing the ‘strongest internal circulation in history’, with a serious mismatch between supply and demand, and the industry has entered an ice age. So far, the four major links of silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries, and components have fallen below the cash cost, and the entire industry chain is under collective pressure. In this round of shock cycle of the photovoltaic industry, the overall production capacity has expanded by about 3 times, but the profit margin has dropped by about 70%.”

Regarding the subsequent price trend of the photovoltaic industry chain, Qian Jing, vice president of JinkoSolar, analyzed in an interview with the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” and other media that “the current price should be the bottom. Now there are few (enterprises) that can achieve profitability in the entire industry chain, that is, Even if they can make a profit, it is very meager.

The principle of photovoltaic power generation is to convert light energy into electrical energy. This technology covers the entire process from photovoltaic module manufacturing to power generation. If it is lower than the current level, it will be very unsustainable. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that some (companies) are “fighting desperately” and releasing lower prices. It is expected that in Q3 and Q4 this year, the overall price of the industrial chain can stop falling and rise slightly.

It is worth mentioning that Chinese photovoltaic companies are accelerating their “going overseas”. During SNEC 2024, Chen Baoyin, co-founder and executive vice president of Renshuo Solar, told the reporter of “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” that the company has begun to connect with overseas customers and related products are expected to enter the overseas market this year. “We have already cooperated with Rhine and other institutions to start third-party testing and certification of products, and at the same time plan international market expansion plans.”

“The price of overseas locally manufactured components is favorable. Taking components as an example, companies from various countries go to the United States to build factories, and the potential of the Middle East cannot be ignored.” Zhao Yi, a photovoltaic analyst at the new energy research institution InfoLink, said, “There are opportunities and risks in overseas layout. When relevant companies are making layouts, they need to comprehensively consider factors such as geopolitics and trade barriers, product layout and intellectual property rights, and recruitment and management of personnel with overseas operating experience.”

Looking back at the industry’s “involution”, Zhu Gongshan, chairman of GCL Group, believes that “seeing the essence through the phenomenon, the involution is intensified, which is closely related to the industry’s misjudgment of the supply and demand relationship, and the industry’s touching the ceiling of inherent technology, resulting in insufficient entry barriers. The technological ceiling determines the industry ceiling, the industry’s existing technology premium and power generation gain margins are reduced, and local technology improvements are not enough to resist the trend of supply chain imbalance. This is the key to the forced involution of the industrial chain. “

In Zhu Gongshan’s view, the existing market mismatch feedback does not affect the industry’s high growth trend. “The demand for the photovoltaic industry will continue to maintain high growth, but the growth rate will slow down slightly. We must firmly believe in crossing the cycle. Only breakthroughs in core technologies can bring about the expansion of the industry ceiling and the improvement of the involution ecology.”

Chen Baoyin, co-founder and executive vice president of Renshuo Solar, said, “Although the crystalline silicon industry is currently involved, the global photovoltaic market demand will remain stable and growing in the next 30 years. Crystalline silicon technology has reached a bottleneck and the cost has reached the limit. The crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry is expected to see industry integration, and the price of crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules will rebound to a certain extent in the future.”

In his view, perovskite technology is continuing to improve rapidly, and the demand for photovoltaic system debugging is also increasing significantly as the industry scale continues to expand. The industry scale is constantly expanding, and the cost will drop significantly in the future, and the competitive advantage of the perovskite industry will become more prominent.

During the SNEC 2024 boom, some “cold” events in the photovoltaic industry also quietly occurred: ST Yangguang, which was originally mainly engaged in the production and sales of woolen fabrics and then crossed over to the photovoltaic industry, became the first stock to be delisted in the photovoltaic industry this year; ST Aikang, one of the former HJT leading companies, is on the verge of delisting.

“Leading companies should actively expand production and research and development, and look for differentiated layouts and products that are ‘irreplaceable in the short term’ inhomogeneous competition, to make their advantages snowball bigger and bigger. Since specialized and second-tier companies are less likely to have the ability to change the development of the industry, they should seize the most cutting-edge real-time trends in the market and not miss any possible opportunities,” said Du Jianen, a photovoltaic industry analyst at New energy research institution InfoLink.

The photovoltaic industry has grown rapidly in recent years due to advances in solar panel technology
The photovoltaic industry has grown rapidly in recent years due to advances in solar panel technology

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